Statement by the Russian Ministry of Defense

On 19 May 2026, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that it would conduct a large-scale nuclear forces exercise from 19 to 21 May. The statement, released via the Ministry's official Telegram channel, indicates that the exercise will involve launches of ballistic and cruise missiles. Based on precedents from previous nuclear forces exercises, the launches are assessed to involve intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs).

From 19 to 21 May 2026, an exercise concerning the preparation and employment of nuclear forces under the threat of aggression will be conducted within the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
Participating formations include the Strategic Rocket Forces, the Northern Fleet, the Pacific Fleet, Long-Range Aviation Command, and elements of the Leningrad and Central Military Districts.
The objectives of the exercise are as follows:
To enhance the proficiency of command and operational personnel, and to refine the command and control of subordinate units, in the course of preparing and implementing deterrence measures against a notional adversary.
To verify the readiness of command bodies and units mobilized for the mission of repelling aggression.
To provide practical training for command bodies, formations, and military units in command and control, inter-service coordination, and general logistical support during the execution of assigned missions.
To assess the capability of participating units to perform their designated missions.
During the practical phase, measures will be implemented to bring selected formations and units of the nuclear forces to operational readiness, along with the associated general support measures, and planned launches of ballistic and cruise missiles will be conducted against training ranges within the territory of the Russian Federation.
The exercise will mobilize more than 64,000 personnel and over 7,800 items of weapons and military equipment, including more than 200 missile launchers, over 140 aircraft, 73 surface vessels, and 13 submarines (of which 8 are strategic ballistic missile submarines).
The exercise will also incorporate training on the joint preparation and employment of nuclear weapons deployed within the territory of the Republic of Belarus.

Commencement of Nuclear Drills in Belarus

As set out above, the Russian nuclear forces exercise is synchronized with training on the preparation and employment of nuclear weapons in Belarus. The Belarusian drills commenced on 19 May, the same day as the Russian MoD announcement. The statement from the Belarusian Ministry of Defense reads as follows:

With the aim of enhancing the operational readiness of the Belarusian Armed Forces in the employment of modern means of strike, including special munitions, training of military units responsible for the combat employment of nuclear weapons and for nuclear support commenced today under the direction of the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus and First Deputy Minister of Defense.
The objectives of this training are to enhance the proficiency of personnel, to verify the operational readiness of weapons and military equipment, and to organize combat employment from areas that have not been pre-designated.

Units of the rocket forces and aviation forces will be mobilized. During the training, in coordination with the Russian side, practical exercises will be conducted on the transportation of nuclear munitions and preparation for their use.
The principal feature of this exercise is the verification of readiness to conduct combat employment missions from unprepared locations across the entire territory of the Republic of Belarus. Particular emphasis will be placed on training in concealment, long-distance redeployment, and the various calculations associated with the employment of forces and assets.
This training constitutes a planned preparatory measure within the framework of the Union State. It is not directed against any third state, nor does it pose a threat to regional security.

The specific content of the Belarusian training is not known. However, the explicit emphasis on "combat employment missions from areas that have not been pre-designated" suggests that the exercise is strongly oriented toward realistic operational conditions.

In relation to the Russian nuclear forces exercise, particular attention should be paid to whether launch training will be conducted by the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) brigade reportedly formed within Belarus by the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces in December last year. It is also highly probable that MiG-31K fighters, capable of carrying the Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM), have been deployed to Belarus in conjunction with the exercise, raising the possibility that the missile may feature in the drills.

Possible Scenarios

Russia customarily conducts its large-scale exercises involving the strategic nuclear forces during the autumn-to-winter period. The conduct of such an exercise in spring is therefore exceptional. The most recent precedent for an off-cycle exercise involving the strategic nuclear forces was on 19 February 2022, five days before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. That exercise is assessed to have been intended to deter Western intervention in the impending invasion.

Viewed in this context, the announcement of an off-cycle nuclear forces exercise raises significant concern, as the possibility that Russia intends some form of escalation cannot be ruled out. The use of previously unseen phrasing, namely "exercise concerning the preparation and employment of nuclear forces under the threat of aggression," further indicates that this exercise is of an unusual character.

The fact that the exercise is synchronized with nuclear drills in Belarus reinforces this assessment. Since March of this year, Ukrainian government authorities have repeatedly indicated that unusual military activity has been observed in Belarus, with stated possibilities including the entry of the Belarusian Armed Forces into the war, an invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory, and limited use of military force from Belarus against NATO member states. It cannot be ruled out that the present exercise is not merely a training event for nuclear forces but is linked to escalation scenarios of this kind. Whether Russia genuinely intends to undertake such action, or is signaling the possibility to generate leverage in political bargaining, is difficult to assess at this stage.

In previous nuclear forces exercises, it has frequently been reported that President Putin personally issued launch orders or "supervised" the launches. The present exercise, however, was announced almost simultaneously with Putin's visit to China. Should Putin perform a comparable role on this occasion, it would mark the first instance of his doing so from foreign soil. This raises the possibility of political calculations such as demonstrating the closeness of relations with China, or signaling that command and control authority over nuclear weapons can be exercised even from within Chinese territory.

Status of Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces in the Far East

Based on the Russian MoD's announcement, the principal focus of the exercise appears to be the European theatre. Nevertheless, given the explicit involvement of the Pacific Fleet and Long-Range Aviation Command, an intensification of activity by strategic nuclear forces deployed in the Far East is almost certain.

With respect to the Pacific Fleet's ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) fleet, one Project 955A (Borei-A class) SSBN has been on extended patrol since March. Satellite imagery as of 18 May confirms that an additional two Project 955A SSBNs and one Project 955 (Borei class) SSBN are in operational status. In aggregate, a maximum of four SSBNs are assessed to be available to participate in the exercise. The possibility that submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) will be launched from the Sea of Okhotsk toward the Chizha impact range in the Arctic cannot be ruled out.

At the Long-Range Aviation Command's Ukrainka air base (Amur Oblast), as of 10 May, 38 Tu-95MS bombers and 7 Tu-160 supersonic bombers were deployed, a figure that does not represent a significant departure from previous cases. However, the possibility of unusual bomber deployments subsequent to that date cannot be ruled out. Furthermore, satellite imagery of the nearby nuclear warhead storage facility has not been available since the beginning of May, making an assessment of its current status difficult.

DEEP DIVE Breaking News 040 Russia to Conduct Unusual Nuclear Forces Exercise